House prices in Canada’s popular ski regions expected to dip 3% over the next year, despite year-over-year price gains

Single-family detached home price increased 15.1% in the first 10 months of 2022

• B.C. ski region of Big White posts highest median price gain in single-family detached segment (45.5%) among regions surveyed
• Quebec’s Mont-Tremblant region reports highest median price increase in condominium segment (44.4%) among regions surveyed
• Southern Georgian Bay’s condominium prices record modest increase of 1.3% year-over-year in 2022, following more than 50% jump last year
• 75% of U.S. border state citizens who own a Canadian recreational property transacted following the federal government’s announcement of a two-year foreign buyer ban

 According to the Royal LePage Winter Recreational Property Report released today, Canada’s popular ski regions have posted double-digit year-over-year home price appreciation^[1] since the beginning of 2022, despite rising interest rates and price declines in the residential market. Nationally, in the first 10 months of the year, the median price of a single-family detached home increased 15.1% year-over-year to $1,042,700.

“While the rapid rise in interest rates, which began in March of this year, has caused many would-be buyers in the residential market to move to the sidelines, some recreational property purchasers – most notably in higher-end markets – have demonstrated a greater tolerance to increasing monthly mortgage costs,” said Pauline Aunger, broker of record, Royal LePage Advantage Real Estate. “Additionally, many buyers of secondary properties are able to leverage equity from their primary residence or may not require financing at all.”

All recreational regions surveyed recorded double-digit declines in the number of homes sold during the first 10 months of 2022, compared to the same period last year, when demand for properties reached historical highs. Royal LePage recreational property market experts across the country report more balanced conditions and an increase in inventory, compared to 2021. It is widely anticipated that further price growth is unlikely, as activity levels are expected to continue their decline.

“For most Canadians, owning a recreational property is a nice-to-have lifestyle option,” said Aunger. “In the current economic environment, it is not surprising that sales have declined. With recreational homes in greater supply and most staying on the market longer, those that remain in the market are facing less competition, compared to last year. While activity has moderated from the exuberant levels seen during the pandemic boom, demand for recreational properties remains healthy – both as primary and secondary residences. Even as offices reopen and international travel resumes, buyers with the ability to work remotely continue to permanently relocate into recreational communities in search of better work-life balance and access to the outdoors.”

In its 2022 federal budget released on April 7th, the Government of Canada announced that it will be implementing a two-year ban on non-Canadian citizens and non-permanent residents from purchasing residential property in the country.^[2] The ban is slated to come into effect on January 1st, 2023. While vacation homes are expected to be exempt from this restriction, the announcement has had a significant impact on the buying intentions of U.S. citizens.

A recent Royal LePage survey of U.S. citizens living in border states,^[3] conducted by Leger, found that 75 per cent of those who currently own a recreational property in Canada said that they made their purchase after the two-year foreign buyer ban was announced. Of those who purchased following the announcement, 77 per cent stated that the potential impacts of the ban on their ability to buy real estate in Canada after January 1st, 2023, influenced their decision to purchase before the end of this year.

Among those surveyed who do not currently own a recreational property in Canada, but plan to make a purchase, 67 per cent said that the current strength of the U.S. dollar has made them more inclined to buy a home north of the border. The primary reasons for wanting to buy a recreational property in Canada are multi-season usability (39%), for retirement purposes (38%), and for investment purposes (37%).

“Canada’s winter recreational regions are a draw for our neighbours to the south who are looking for a place to live and play in the winter months. The strength of the U.S. dollar, investment opportunities and relative affordability of recreational properties have enticed buyers from south of the border. With its world-class skiing resorts and picturesque winter landscapes, Canada will remain a desirable location for recreational buyers from all over the world,” said Aunger.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the median price of a single-family detached home in Canada’s recreational ski regions will decrease 3.0 per cent over the next 12 months to $1,011,451.

Data chart – Royal LePage 2022 Winter Recreational Property Report: rlp.ca/table_2022winterrecreationalreport 

Survey chart – 2022 Royal LePage Report on U.S. Recreational Property Buyers in Canada: rlp.ca/us-recreational-buyers-2022survey

REGIONAL SUMMARIES 

Quebec 

Mont-Tremblant (Mont-Tremblant, Saint-Faustin–Lac-Carré, La Conception)

The median price of a single-family detached home in  Mont-Tremblant’s recreational property market for the first 10 months of the year increased 23.5 per cent year-over-year to $500,000, while sales decreased 38.1 per cent. Meanwhile, the median price of a condominium increased 44.4 per cent year-over-year to $475,000. Sales in the condominium segment decreased 47.8 per cent in 2022.

For prospective buyers seeking a property slopeside or at mountain base, the current starting prices are around $1.2 million for a single-family detached home and $650,000 for a condominium.

Paul Dalbec, a chartered real estate broker with Mont-Tremblant Real Estate, a division of Royal LePage, says that the Mont-Tremblant real estate market is in the midst of transitioning from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market, which explains the sharp decline in sales. With interest rates moving higher, many potential buyers have adopted a wait-and-see attitude.

“The current slowdown should help shift the Tremblant housing market back to a more normal sales cycle,” Dalbec says. “I expect that in the coming months, slopeside luxury condos worth between $700,000 and $1 million, and single-family residences valued from $400,000 to $600,000 will be most affected by the price correction, as those properties appreciated much more during the pandemic.”

Dalbac says the announcement by the federal government in its April, 2022, budget speech of a ban on foreign housing investments in Canada may have dampened the spirits of some international buyers looking to purchase properties in Mont-Tremblant.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the median price of a single-family detached home in this region will decline by 10 per cent over the next 12 months.

Mont Saint-Sauveur (Saint-Sauveur, Morin-Heights, Piedmont)

The median price of a single-family detached home in Mont Saint-Sauveur’s recreational property market for the first 10 months of the year increased 19.7 per cent year-over-year to $562,500, compared to the same period in 2021, while sales decreased 32.8 percent. Meanwhile, the median price of a condominium increased 22.4 per cent year-over-year to $382,300. Sales in the condominium segment decreased 32.3 per cent in 2022.

For prospective buyers seeking a property slopeside or at mountain base, the current starting price is around $675,000 for a single-family home, and $395,000 for a condominium.

“The year 2023 should usher in better negotiating conditions between sellers and buyers,” predicts Éric Léger, chartered real estate broker with Royal LePage Humania, adding that sellers in the area have started reducing their asking price when the initial listing fails to attract buyers. “Buyers are showing more confidence, with many more of them making conditional offers – that’s something that had all but disappeared during the pandemic. Although the pandemic boom put many first-time buyers into competitive offer scenarios, the current demand comes from experienced buyers whose purchasing power is less affected by economic ups and downs.”

In the coming months, Léger expects to see a steady increase in supply in the region.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the median price of a single-family detached home in this region will decline 5.0 per cent over the next 12 months. 

Val Saint-Côme and Mont Garceau (Saint-Côme, Saint-Donat)

The median price of a single-family detached home in Val Saint-Côme’s and Mont Garceau’s recreational property market for the first 10 months of the year increased 17.9 per cent year-over-year to $435,000, compared to the same period in 2021, while sales dropped 36.3 per cent.

For prospective buyers seeking a property slopeside or at mountain base, the current starting prices are around $450,000 for a single-family detached home, and $300,000 for a condominium, although inventory is low in this segment.

“Properties in Lanaudière remain among the most affordable in Quebec’s ski regions, despite the significant increases of the past two years,” observes Éric Fugère, real estate broker with Royal LePage Habitations. “The current period should bring great opportunities for buyers, but even more importantly, time to choose wisely and negotiate fairly. Inventory is creeping up but remains limited, as potential sellers in the region – many of whom are secondary property owners – are waiting for economic conditions to improve and buyer demand to increase, before putting their homes on the market.”

Fugère emphasizes the importance of dealing with a real estate professional when selling or buying a recreational property, especially in the winter.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the median price of a single-family detached home in this region will decline 12.5 per cent over the next 12 months.

Bromont, Sutton (Sutton, Brome and Lac Brome) and Orford (Orford and Magog)

The recreational property markets in Bromont, Sutton and Orford posted uneven price changes during the first 10 months of the year . During this period, the median price of a single-family detached home in Mount Orford (Orford and Magog) increased 17.8 per cent year-over-year to $470,000. In Bromont and Mont Sutton (Sutton, Brome and Lac-Brome), median prices for single-family homes declined 3.0 per cent and 0.9 per cent, to $586,000 and $548,000 respectively, during the same period. Meanwhile, sales declined 25.3 per cent, 39.2 per cent and 12.7 per cent respectively, in Orford, Bromont and Sutton. During the same period, the median price of a condominium climbed 19.5 per cent year-over-year to $498,500 in Bromont, and 16.9 per cent year-over-year to $291,000 in Orford, while sales were down 12.5 per cent and 27.4 per cent, respectively.

For prospective buyers seeking a property slopeside or at mountain base, starting prices currently range from $650,000 to $950,000 for a single-family home and from $450,000 to $650,000 for a condominium.

“The runaway home price increases we saw in the Eastern Townships between 2020 and the first half of 2022 have resulted in a migration of demand toward less congested and less expensive markets,” explains Véronique Boucher, real estate broker with Royal LePage Au Sommet. “Some real estate markets like Bromont reached record high appreciation, which explains why prices have stabilized this year, to the benefit of other, more affordable areas a bit farther away, like Orford. In the condo market, demand for rental assets has contributed to price growth in recent years in Orford, due to the potential for additional income from short-term rentals, as well as strong resale value.”

Looking ahead to the new year, Boucher expects that price appreciation in 2023 will depend greatly on the number of new listings on the market. If there is more inventory, it could give buyers more leverage for negotiating. Given that interest rates will remain relatively high, prices should continue to taper off for the first half of the year.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the median price of a single-family detached home will decline 5.5 per cent in Bromont, 4.0 per cent in Sutton, and 3.0 per cent in Orford over the next 12 months.

Stoneham/Lac-Beauport (Stoneham-et-Tewkesbury, Lac Delage, St-Gabriel-de-Valcartier, Lac-Beauport) and Mont-Sainte-Anne (Beaupré, Sainte-Anne-de-Beaupré, Saint-Ferréol-les-Neiges, Saint-Joachim)

The median price of a single-family detached home near the ski slopes in Stoneham’s and Lac-Beauport’s recreational property market for the first 10 months of the year increased 15.9 per cent year-over-year to $475,300, while sales slipped 26.5 per cent.

For prospective buyers seeking a property slopeside or at mountain base, the starting price is currently around $700,000 for a single-family home, and $300,000 for a condominium.

The median price of a single-family detached home in Mont Sainte-Anne’s recreational property market for the first 10 months of the year increased 4.1 per cent year-over-year to $286,200, with sales decreasing 26.6 per cent. Meanwhile, the median price of a condominium in the region increased 16.0 per cent year-over-year to $145,000. Condominium sales increased 10.4 per cent during the same period.

For prospective buyers seeking a property slopeside or at mountain base, the starting price is typically $700,000 for a single-family home, and $300,000 for a condominium.

“The runaway growth in recreational property prices over the past two years was bound to come to an end,” says Marc Bonenfant, chartered real estate broker with Royal LePage Inter-Québec. “We’ve entered an adjustment phase in the recreational areas of the Capitale-Nationale region, and we should soon see more balance between supply and demand. That means prices will continue to soften through the rest of this year and well into 2023. We will likely see selling times continue to lengthen, although days on market remain below average for the region over the past decade.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the median price of a single-family detached home will decline 10.0 per cent in the Stoneham/Lac-Beauport market, and 8.0 per cent in the Mont-Sainte-Anne market over the next 12 months.

Data chart – Royal LePage 2022 Winter Recreational Property Report: rlp.ca/table_2022winterrecreationalreport 

Survey chart – 2022 Royal LePage Report on U.S. Recreational Property Buyers in Canada: rlp.ca/us-recreational-buyers-2022survey 

Ontario

Southern Georgian Bay (Collingwood/Meaford/Thornbury)

The median price of a single-family detached home in Southern Georgian Bay’s recreational property market for the first 10 months of the year increased 11.3 per cent year-over-year to $890,000. Meanwhile, the median price of a condominium increased 1.3 per cent to $679,000 during the same period; a sharp contrast to 2021, when condominium prices rose more than 50 per cent year-over-year. For those looking to buy a house slopeside or at mountain base, prices typically start at $1,500,000. Total sales were down 27 per cent year-over-year in the region, following historic sales volumes in 2021.

“While the number of homes coming onto the market has increased, we are seeing a notable decline in sales activity. The number of days a property typically stays on the market has risen by about 30 per cent since the beginning of the year, settling back to pre-pandemic levels as the buying boom comes to an end,” said Desmond von Teichman, broker, Royal LePage Locations North. “Still, demand remains strong. We continue to see a number of residents with remote working capabilities permanently relocating to the region from the Greater Golden Horseshoe in search of more affordable real estate and better work-life balance. While this trend has slowed, we don’t imagine that it will end soon.”

The short-term recreational rental market has been under pressure as of late, added von Teichman. With global travel having resumed once again, seasonal rentals face diminishing demand and increasing supply as Canadians choose to vacation abroad. The effects of higher inflation, rising mortgage rates and the increased cost of living have also weakened demand on rentals, as many Canadians cut back on discretionary spending. While there has been a slight decrease in demand for luxury properties compared to 2021, von Teichman added that this segment of the market has outperformed the overall market this year.

“Given its convenient proximity to the GTA, Southern Georgian Bay’s real estate market is largely driven by demand from within Ontario,” said von Teichman. “Urban buyers may be somewhat cushioned from the impacts of rising interest rates here, as funds acquired from selling their properties in high-priced surrounding areas tend to stretch farther and boost their buying power.”

Market activity is largely motivated by local demand from nearby cities. However, Ontario remains a desirable destination for U.S. purchasers. Forty-three per cent of U.S. citizens living in border states who currently own a recreational property in Canada have purchased a home in Ontario. Of those who plan to purchase a recreational property in Canada, 48 per cent say they intend to purchase in the province.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the median price of a single-family detached home in Southern Georgian Bay will increase 5.0 per cent over the next 12 months, as the market continues its return to pre-pandemic seasonal trends.

Data chart – Royal LePage 2022 Winter Recreational Property Report: rlp.ca/table_2022winterrecreationalreport 

Survey chart – 2022 Royal LePage Report on U.S. Recreational Property Buyers in Canada: rlp.ca/us-recreational-buyers-2022survey 

Alberta

Canmore

The median price of a single-family detached home in Canmore’s recreational property market for the first 10 months of the year increased 23.6 per cent year-over-year to $1,588,900, while the median price of a condominium increased 5.9 per cent to $663,400. Total sales were down 41 per cent year-over-year in the region.

“After a record year in 2021, sales have trended back towards long-range historic norms. We have been in a seller’s market for several years, but have recently begun to show signs that we are edging towards a more balanced market in some segments,” said Brad Hawker, associate broker, Royal LePage Solutions. “Inventory has remained at similar levels this past year, which is still well below typical numbers, putting continued upward pressure on prices. Sellers can be reluctant to list their homes in the region, as there is limited inventory of recreational properties to upgrade into.”

Like many recreational markets, Canmore continues to see buyers with remote working capabilities relocate into the community, Hawker added. Although relocation inquiries have reduced, as offices recall employees back to fully-in-office or hybrid work arrangements, Hawker predicts that the work-from-home option will exist for the foreseeable future, adding pressure to the market alongside increased demand from retirees.

“Many Canmore buyers do not require financing. As a result, rising interest rates are not having as significant an impact on our market, compared to other regions. While I do expect prices to soften over the coming year, declines will be modest,” said Hawker. “The impact of higher borrowing costs on the overall economy, however, is causing some buyers to take a wait-and-see approach. Most buyers in this market have the luxury of time, and are waiting to see how things unfold.”

Royal LePage is forecasting that the median price of a single-family detached home in Canmore will decrease 4.0 per cent over the next 12 months, as sales are expected to return to the 10-year average for the region.

Data chart – Royal LePage 2022 Winter Recreational Property Report: rlp.ca/table_2022winterrecreationalreport 

Survey chart – 2022 Royal LePage Report on U.S. Recreational Property Buyers in Canada: rlp.ca/us-recreational-buyers-2022survey 

British Columbia

Whistler

The median price of a single-family detached home in Whistler’s recreational property market for the first 10 months of the year increased 14.8 per cent year-over-year to $3,648,200, while the median price of a condominium increased 9.7 per cent to $673,300. For those looking to buy a house or condominium slopeside or at mountain base, prices typically start at $2,000,000 and $600,000, respectively. Total sales were down 35 per cent year-over-year in the region.

“In addition to skiing, summer activities such as biking and golfing – coupled with people’s overall desire to be outdoors in nature – make Whistler a popular year-around recreational destination that attracts both regional and international luxury buyers,” said Frank Ingham, associate broker, Royal LePage Sussex. “Home sales have decreased significantly, compared to the pandemic buying boom. And, demand for properties in the area remains strong, although muted compared to last year. Potential buyers today have more choice and more time to sign a deal, as inventory continues to increase along with the average days on market.”

Whistler, which is exempt from British Columbia’s speculation and vacancy tax, has long been a draw for high-end property buyers from all over the world, including many from Seattle, Washington. Thirty-two per cent of U.S. citizens living in border states who currently own a recreational property in Canada have purchased a home in British Columbia. Of those who plan to purchase a recreational property in Canada, 33 per cent say they intend to purchase in the province.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the median price of a single-family detached home in Whistler will decrease 10.0 per cent over the next 12 months, as sales are expected to continue their downward trend, resulting in a surplus of available supply.

Invermere

The median price of a single-family detached home in Invermere’s recreational property market for the first 10 months of the year increased 4.8 per cent year-over-year to $627,500, while the median price of a condominium increased 22.2 per cent to $275,000. For those looking to buy a house or condominium slopeside or at mountain base, prices typically start at $525,000 and $250,000, respectively. Total sales were down 33 per cent year-over-year in the region.

“Invermere is beginning to shift from a strong seller’s market towards a more balanced one. Desirable properties that are well-priced continue to sell quickly, but we are not seeing the same level of demand that we did in 2021. The decline in sales volume directly correlates with the rise in interest rates this year,” said Barry Benson, broker, Royal LePage Rockies West Realty. “Although we have not seen a meaningful rise in resale listings this year, the number of recreational properties available for short-term lease has increased, as many homeowners look to the rental market as a revenue source to offset rising borrowing expenses.”

Over the last year, buyer demand from young couples and retirees in search of affordable housing and a higher quality of life has remained stable. Invermere’s proximity to Calgary makes it an especially attractive option for Alberta buyers who are looking for greater work-life balance, Benson added. While Invermere will continue to see demand for recreational homes and short-term rental properties that offer access to year-round leisure, sales volumes are expected to trend back down to pre-pandemic levels over the next year, from historic highs in 2021, resulting in lower home prices. Low inventory levels will assist in keeping the market competitive and preventing large price reductions.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the median price of a single-family detached home in Invermere will decrease 7.5 per cent over the next 12 months.

Revelstoke

The median price of a single-family detached home in Revelstoke’s recreational property market for the first 10 months of the year increased 13.3 per cent year-over-year to $850,000, while the median price of a condominium increased 36.6 per cent to $778,500. For those looking to buy a house or condominium slopeside or at mountain base, prices typically start at $5,000,000 and $900,000, respectively. Total sales were down 18 per cent year-over-year in the region.

“Property sales have slowed since hikes to interest rates began earlier this year, with first-time buyers and those with tighter budgets the most affected by rising borrowing costs. Still, this will be the second-best year for Revelstoke on record,” said Don Teuton, broker and owner, Royal LePage Revelstoke. “The market is more balanced compared to last year. Potential buyers find themselves in a much less competitive environment, as demand has dampened. While higher home prices and a shortage of inventory continue to be a challenge, price gains recorded since the start of the pandemic boom are unlikely to be sustained.”

Teuton added that homebuyers from outside the region continue to cash in on their existing properties and relocate to Revelstoke in search of a more balanced lifestyle, including some from other higher-cost recreational communities. Despite the current strength of the U.S. dollar, demand from international buyers has been dampened by pandemic fears and travel restrictions. However, Teuton expects that this trend will reverse in the coming years.

Thirty-two per cent of U.S. citizens living in border states who currently own a recreational property in Canada have purchased a home in British Columbia. Of those who plan to purchase a recreational property in Canada, 33 per cent say they intend to purchase in the province.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the median price of a single-family detached home in Revelstoke will decrease 10.0 per cent over the next 12 months, as further interest rate hikes and continued economic uncertainty are expected.

Mount Washington/Comox Valley 

The median price of a single-family detached home in the Mount Washington/Comox Valley region’s recreational property market for the first 10 months of the year decreased 5.6 per cent year-over-year to $850,000, while the median price of a condominium increased 18.8 per cent to $475,000. For those looking to buy a condominium slopeside or at mountain base, prices typically start at $300,000. Total sales were down 71 per cent year-over-year in the region, as a result of record low inventory that has reached near-zero levels over the past six months.

“The sense of urgency has disappeared from Mount Washington/Comox Valley’s housing market, resulting in healthier, more balanced conditions for buyers and sellers,” said Rick Gibson, sales representative, Royal LePage in the Comox Valley. “Home prices have leveled off since the end of June. As leaseholds and cash buyers are common in this market, the region is somewhat sheltered from the impacts of rising interest rates.

“Mount Washington is an all-season destination, where residents can enjoy alpine activities in the winter, and beaches, golf courses and hiking in the summer,” Gibson added. “If inventory were to increase, I expect sales would rise in tandem.”

Gibson added that a lack of convenient transportation options, such as flights to and from adjacent states, prevents many interested U.S. buyers from purchasing in the region.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the median price of a single-family detached home in MountWashington/Comox Valley will increase 8.0 per cent over the next 12 months, as extremely low inventory is expected to put continued upward pressure on prices in 2023.

Sun Peaks 

The median price of a single-family detached home in Sun Peaks’ recreational property market for the first 10 months of the year increased 13.0 per cent year-over-year to $1,540,000, while the median price of a condominium increased 26.6 per cent to $504,500. For those looking to buy a house or condominium slopeside or at mountain base, prices typically start at $1,350,000 and $320,000, respectively. Total sales were down 25 per cent year-over-year in the region, which is located outside Kamloops, British Columbia.

“Although year-over-year sales are down and available inventory has decreased slightly, home prices have noticeably climbed this past year. Some of the heat has been taken out of the market compared to the 2021 activity levels, although it remains favourable to home sellers,” said Kyle Panasuk, sales representative, Royal LePage Westwin Realty. “We continue to see a desire for home office space from buyers who can work remotely. The local school, skating rink and access to ski-in, ski-out amenities at Sun Peaks are a draw for many local purchasers, as well as remote workers from outside the region looking to relocate to the community full-time.”

Panasuk added that the short-term recreational rental market has continued to perform well in Sun Peaks. Rising interest rates – which have impacted the buying power of both recreational and principal property buyers – may encourage some homeowners to rent out their properties to recoup some of their monthly expenses.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the median price of a single-family detached home in Sun Peaks will increase 8.0 per cent over the next 12 months.

Big White 

The median price of a single-family detached home in Big White’s recreational property market for the first 10 months of the year increased 45.5 per cent year-over-year to $1,600,000, while the median price of a condominium increased 11.1 per cent to $500,000. For those looking to buy a house or condominium slopeside or at mountain base, prices typically start at $900,000 and $400,000, respectively. Total sales were down 33 per cent year-over-year in the region, located outside of Kelowna, British Columbia.

“Transactions at the upper end of the market are largely responsible for the dramatic price increases in the single-family segment, as Big White continues to attract luxury recreational property buyers. However, demand has slowed over the last year as buyers adjust to the rising interest rate environment and sellers feel less urgency to list their properties,” said Andrew Braff, sales representative, Royal LePage Kelowna. “As activity moderates, we are seeing fewer multiple-offer scenarios compared to last year.”

Braff noted that luxury property owners are less impacted by changes in the market, and are more likely to keep their properties in the family long-term, for several generations to enjoy.

In addition to local buyers, the world-renowned ski region attracts demand from across the border and around the globe. However, pandemic travel restrictions over the last two years have forced some international homeowners to visit their recreational properties less frequently.

Thirty-two per cent of U.S. citizens living in border states who currently own a recreational property in Canada have purchased a home in British Columbia. Of those who plan to purchase a recreational property in Canada, 33 per cent say they intend to purchase in the province.

Royal LePage is forecasting that the median price of a single-family detached home in Big White will increase 7.0 per cent over the next 12 months.

Data chart – Royal LePage 2022 Winter Recreational Property Report: rlp.ca/table_2022winterrecreationalreport 

Survey chart – 2022 Royal LePage Report on U.S. Recreational Property Buyers in Canada: rlp.ca/us-recreational-buyers-2022survey

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About the Royal LePage Winter Recreational Property Report 

The 2022 Royal LePage Winter Recreational Property Report compiles insights, data and forecasts from 16 popular ski regions. Median price and sales data was compiled and analyzed by Royal LePage for the period between January 1, 2022 and October 31, 2022 and January 1, 2021 and October 31, 2021. Data was sourced through local brokerages and boards in each of the surveyed regions. Data availability is based on a transactional threshold and whether regional data is available using the report’s standard housing types.

About the Leger survey

An online survey of 1506 U.S. citizens over the age of 18 living in border states (Maine, New York, Vermont, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Ohio, Wisconsin, Minnesota, North Dakota, Montana, Washington, New Hampshire, Idaho, Oregon, Massachusetts, Indiana and Illinois) was completed between November 8th to November 14th, 2022, using Leger’s online panel. No margin of error can be associated with a non-probability sample (i.e. a web panel in this case). For comparative purposes, though, a probability sample of 1506 respondents would have a margin of error of  +/-2.5% on n=1500.

2023 national aggregate home price forecast to end year 1.0% below fourth quarter of 2022: Royal LePage

First quarter expected to show double-digit year-over-year declines, with modest quarterly price growth in the second half of next year

• On a quarter-over-quarter basis, prices expected to flatten in Q2 and begin modest improvement in second half of the year, ending 2023 on upward trajectory; release includes national aggregate quarterly forecast for 2023
• Condominium prices expected to outperform single-family homes in all major markets except Edmonton and Winnipeg
• Greater regions of Toronto and Montreal forecast to see Q4 2023 aggregate price decline of 2.0% year-over-year
• Q4 2023 aggregate home price in Greater Vancouver projected to dip 1.0% year-over-year
• Despite declining affordability, heightened by rising interest rates, continued housing supply shortage acts as a floor on home price declines

TORONTO, December 13, 2022 – Since the Bank of Canada began raising interest rates aggressively in March of this year, home prices in many major markets across Canada have been decreasing. The rate of decline, however, has been modest. According to the Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast, the aggregate^[1] price of a home in Canada is set to decrease 1.0 per cent year-over-year to $765,171 in the fourth quarter of 2023, with the median price of a single-family detached property and condominium projected to decrease 2.0 per cent and increase 1.0 per cent to $781,256 and $568,933, respectively.^[2]

“After nearly two years of record price appreciation, fueled by a steep climb in household savings, very low borrowing costs and an overwhelming desire for more space during the COVID-19 pandemic, the frenzied housing market overshot and the inevitable downward slide or market correction began, intensified by rapidly rising borrowing rates,” said Phil Soper, president and CEO, Royal LePage. “In an era characterized by the unusual, this correction has not followed historical patterns. While the volume of homes trading hands has dropped steeply, home prices have held on, with relatively modest declines. We see this as a continuing trend.”

Soper continued, “Much focus has been directed at the negative impact of rising rates; there has been far less discussion on factors supporting home prices.”

The higher cost of borrowing erodes affordability, which historically has pushed people out of the market, reducing demand and resulting in falling home prices. Conversely, there are a number of factors supporting home prices in the current environment.

The supply of homes for sale must exceed demand in order for prices to drop materially. Canada is struggling with an acute, long-term housing supply shortage. Organic demand is supported by the current lifecycle of our large millennial demographic and a record number of new immigrants who need to be housed. Smaller household sizes mean more housing units are needed per capita than in the past. Pent-up demand is growing from buyers who have the ability to transact but have chosen not to in these turbulent times.

Low unemployment, and a large buffer of unfilled job vacancies, means that few families are likely to need to sell their homes for financial reasons. Homes are modestly cheaper today than at the height of the pandemic boom, offsetting some of the impact of rising rates, and household savings remain above long-term norms, making it easier to overcome down payment hurdles.

“Traditional wisdom says that a recession triggers widespread job losses and missed mortgage payments. People are forced to sell or the bank forecloses and lists the property, flooding the market with new listings when demand is weak. In this post-pandemic period, people have kept their jobs. In fact, they have seen wages and salaries rise,” said Soper. “We have a tightly managed national mortgage portfolio, with historically low default rates, supported by homeowners who have been required to qualify for a loan under the strict federal stress test for the last five years. And, we can’t forget that Canada has been grappling with an acute shortage of homes overall. We simply don’t see the factors at play that would result in a large drop in home values.”

While home prices nationally are forecast to see modest quarterly gains in the third and fourth quarters of 2023, values are expected to remain lower than the same periods in 2022 throughout the year. The aggregate price of a home in Canada is forecast to be 12.0 per cent lower in Q1 of 2023, compared to the same quarter in 2022, reflecting a 2.4 per cent decline over the fourth quarter of 2022. In the second quarter of next year, the national aggregate price is forecast to be 7.5 per cent lower year-over-year, and remain virtually flat on a quarterly basis. In the third quarter, homes are expected to be 2.0 per cent lower year-over-year, reflecting a 0.7 per cent increase on a quarterly basis. And, in the fourth quarter of 2023, the national aggregate price of a home is expected to end the year 1.0 per cent below the same quarter in 2022, an increase of 0.8 per cent quarter-over-quarter.

“Comparing prices to the previous year, the first quarter of 2023 should show the deepest decline in home values,” said Soper. “At that time, we will be comparing 2022’s final weeks of pandemic housing market excess – when home prices reached historically high levels – to a much quieter market, where values have had a full year to moderate. We expect year-over-year comparisons to show progressively less price decline as the year goes on, with small week-to-week improvements in the third and fourth quarters, allowing Canadian home values to end 2023 essentially flat to where we are today.”

The recovery is not expected to be evenly distributed. Regional markets that saw more moderate price growth during the pandemic real estate boom are expected to experience more modest declines. Due to their relative affordability, cities like Calgary, Edmonton and Halifax are expected to record modest price gains in 2023, as they continue to attract out-of-province buyers, especially first-time homebuyers from southern Ontario and British Columbia looking for more affordable housing.

While home prices have come down from the record highs recorded in the first half of this year, they remain well above pre-pandemic levels. The projected aggregate price of a home in Canada in the fourth quarter of 2023 is expected to sit 15.0 per cent above Q4 of 2020, and 18.4 per cent above Q4 of 2019.

Without a significant increase in housing supply, a return of buyers to the market, some driven by very high rental rates, should start to put upward pressure on prices again. And, in a tight-inventory market, sellers will remain hesitant to list their properties if they are unable to find a move-up home to purchase.

“It’s important to note that many would-be buyers currently sitting on the sidelines have not been forced to exit the market. While some of these families have been priced out for now by rising borrowing rates, we believe some have voluntarily adopted a wait-and-see attitude, not wanting to buy a property today that may be worth less tomorrow. Yet people in their thirties, forties and fifties have known only a Canada where home prices rise faster than incomes. When interest rates appear to have stabilized, these buyers may jump back into the market, anticipating a return to escalating home values,” concluded Soper.

Royal LePage 2023 Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table_2023forecast

Royal LePage 2023 Quarterly Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table_2023quarterlyforecast 

MARKET SUMMARIES

Greater Toronto Area

In the Greater Toronto Area, the aggregate price of a home in the fourth quarter of 2023 is forecast to decrease 2.0 per cent year-over-year to $1,056,734. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached property is expected to decline 2.5 per cent to $1,329,413, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to increase modestly by 1.0 per cent to $701,243.

“The city of Toronto and the surrounding regions have seen some of the steepest price declines in the country since interest rates began climbing earlier this year. Still, home prices remain out of reach for many would-be buyers, putting a lot of extra pressure on the rental market, which has seen prices spike in recent months,” said Karen Yolevski, chief operating officer, Royal LePage Real Estate Services Ltd. “We believe the bulk of the price correction in the GTA has already occurred and that a return to more normal trends is on the horizon.”

Yolevski noted that activity levels are expected to pick up again by the middle of next year, provided interest rates stabilize and consumer confidence is restored.

“Lack of supply is still a huge challenge in southern Ontario. I expect buyers who have been waiting for prices to level off will encounter increased competition when they re-enter the buying cycle, specifically in the more affordable condo segment, although not at the levels seen in 2021 and early 2022,” said Yolevski. “Development has slowed as a result of labour shortages and the increased cost of construction materials. A significant boost in inventory will be needed in the coming years to satisfy sidelined demand and an increasing number of newcomers.”

Royal LePage 2023 Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table_2023forecast

Royal LePage 2023 Quarterly Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table_2023quarterlyforecast 

Greater Montreal Area

In the Greater Montreal Area, the aggregate price of a home in the fourth quarter of 2023 is forecast to decrease 2.0 per cent year-over-year to $532,238. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached property is expected to decrease 2.5 per cent to $588,315, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to dip 1.5 per cent to $421,383.

“The increase in borrowing costs, everyday consumer goods and, more recently, municipal taxes, combined with weaker demand, should continue to put downward pressure on prices in Greater Montreal in 2023,” said Dominic St-Pierre, vice president and general manager, Royal LePage Quebec. “While the price correction is now mostly behind us, we’re forecasting that prices will continue to decrease slightly in the first half of the year, before rebounding modestly over the following six months, once interest rates have stabilized. At that point, it is expected that many buyers who have adopted a wait-and-see attitude will return to the market.”

As they wait for the economic situation to improve, families in Montreal will continue to seek ways to address their reduced budgets and disposable income. The household savings rate, which has remained surprisingly higher than during the pre-pandemic period, is expected to shrink as inflation continues to squeeze Canadians. As a result, buyers will look to condominiums as an alternative, given their relative affordability. Single-family homes are likely to see greater price declines than the condominium segment, since these properties appreciated the most during the pandemic boom, yet entry-level detached homes remain out of reach for many, especially first-time buyers.

“The Greater Montreal Area remains likely to attract buyers from other Canadian provinces, due to the real estate market’s relative affordability, as it did in 2022. On the other hand, the market has already begun feeling the effects of the two-year ban on foreign buyers, which is set to come into effect on January 1st. While a slight increase of international buyers entered the market when the announcement was made, demand from foreign buyers has diminished significantly as the year comes to a close,” noted St-Pierre.

Despite these disruptions and the projected decline in home prices, buyers who purchased a residential property before the onset of the pandemic have seen an appreciation of nearly 25 per cent today, compared to the end of 2019.

Royal LePage 2023 Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table_2023forecast

Royal LePage 2023 Quarterly Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table_2023quarterlyforecast 

Greater Vancouver

In Greater Vancouver, the aggregate price of a home in the fourth quarter of 2023 is forecast to decrease 1.0 per cent year-over-year to $1,216,611. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached property is expected to decline 2.0 per cent to $1,644,538, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to increase 1.0 per cent to $747,299.

“Although many buyers are still sitting on the sidelines, activity levels are showing signs of a return to seasonal norms in Greater Vancouver. Attractive properties in sought-after neighbourhoods that are priced properly continue to sell quickly,” said Randy Ryalls, managing broker, Royal LePage Sterling Realty. “With supply still well below what is required for the market to be considered balanced, I expect we will begin to see prices stabilize in the spring and summer, when some sidelined buyers return to the market.”

Ryalls added that with limited move-up inventory available, many sellers are hesitant to list their properties.

“The supply shortage is a self-fulfilling cycle. Sellers won’t list their home if they cannot find another property to purchase. Despite weakened demand in the second half of this year, the lack of available inventory has kept prices in the region from declining further. And, if activity picks up in the new year as expected, it will not take long for tight competition to challenge buyers once again.”

Royal LePage 2023 Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table_2023forecast

Royal LePage 2023 Quarterly Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table_2023quarterlyforecast 

Ottawa

In Ottawa, the aggregate price of a home in the fourth quarter of 2023 is forecast to increase 2.0 per cent year-over-year to $739,602. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached property is expected to rise 1.0 per cent to $850,117, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to increase 2.0 per cent to $378,114.

“We are anticipating moderate home price growth in the Ottawa market by the end of 2023,” said John Rogan, broker of record, Royal LePage Performance Realty. “Condominiums will likely see greater price appreciation than other property types, including in the single-family detached segment, as higher borrowing costs will continue to limit buyers’ purchasing power and push them to the lower end of the market.”

Rogan added that declining sales in the city in the second half of 2022 are indicative of what is likely to be a slow start to the new year. Presently, local housing activity has been largely motivated by buyers and sellers who are forced to move, including those relocating for work.

“Interest rates will continue to significantly impact home prices in 2023. If interest rates stop increasing, or even decline next year, we could see a spike in home prices and a resurgence of buyer demand from those who have been waiting on the sidelines,” added Rogan. “However, sales would increase gradually, as depleted inventory levels are unlikely to be replenished quickly enough to keep up with renewed purchaser demand.”

Royal LePage 2023 Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table_2023forecast

Royal LePage 2023 Quarterly Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table_2023quarterlyforecast 

Calgary

In Calgary, the aggregate price of a home in the fourth quarter of 2023 is forecast to increase 1.5 per cent year-over-year to $612,451. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached property is expected to rise 1.0 per cent to $701,142, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to increase 2.5 per cent to $239,543.

“Price declines in Calgary’s real estate market are unlikely next year. Unlike Canada’s major urban centres, which saw steep increases during the pandemic boom followed by rapid declines over the last six months, the Calgary market has experienced less drastic swings,” said Corinne Lyall, broker and owner, Royal LePage Benchmark. “I expect we will continue to see moderate price growth in the entry-level market, particularly in the condominium segment, which remains very active and has recorded double-digit sales growth this year. This segment will lead Calgary’s price growth in 2023.”

Lyall noted that Calgary continues to see demand from out-of-province buyers, particularly first-time buyers from Ontario who are seeking affordable housing options in a major city setting. In addition, condominiums are popular among out-of-province investors. A lack of available inventory, especially in the single-family detached segment, remains a challenge for buyers and continues to put upward pressure on prices, particularly in the lower end of the market.

“Buyer demand has remained consistent, and I anticipate Calgary’s real estate market will continue to see a steady pace of activity. There are many buyers hovering on the sidelines, waiting for the right product to hit the market,” said Lyall. “I expect activity will remain strong throughout the winter, with a normal seasonal slowdown in December and January before picking back up in the spring.”

Royal LePage 2023 Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table_2023forecast

Royal LePage 2023 Quarterly Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table_2023quarterlyforecast 

Edmonton

In Edmonton, the aggregate price of a home in the fourth quarter of 2023 is forecast to increase 1.0 per cent year-over-year to $442,683. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached property is expected to rise 2.0 per cent to $491,436, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to decrease 1.5 per cent to $198,281.

“Edmonton’s housing market continues to experience a shortage of inventory compared to pre-pandemic levels, which is helping to keep home prices in check and the overall market balanced,” said Tom Shearer, broker and owner, Royal LePage Noralta Real Estate. “As home buying budgets continue to shrink due to the rising cost of living and higher lending rates, we expect that sales activity will remain relatively flat in 2023. As a result, we are anticipating near level price growth at the end of next year, with a majority of price appreciation expected to occur in the highly sought-after single-family detached segment.”

Shearer noted that many buyers from outside of Alberta and elsewhere in the province continue to enter the city’s housing market. Since the beginning of February, demand has been strong from Ontario and British Columbia buyers looking to relocate to Edmonton, due to its relative affordability and healthy job market.

“Continued strong interprovincial demand will help to keep Edmonton’s market healthy and balanced at the start of the new year and through the spring. I expect a return to normal seasonal trends next year, with increased activity in the summer and a slight pullback through the fall,” said Shearer.

Royal LePage 2023 Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table_2023forecast

Royal LePage 2023 Quarterly Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table_2023quarterlyforecast 

Halifax

In Halifax, the aggregate price of a home in the fourth quarter of 2023 is forecast to increase 0.5 per cent year-over-year to $479,285. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached property is expected to rise 0.5 per cent to $544,610, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to increase 1.5 per cent to $407,015.

“I expect that home price growth in Halifax will be virtually flat in 2023. With interest rates expected to stabilize in the early part of next year, demand is likely to pick up again in the spring, after sales volumes reached a two-decade low this year,” said Matt Honsberger, broker and owner, Royal LePage Atlantic. “Buyers have been sitting on the sidelines waiting for prices to reach their bottom, and sellers have been holding back until interest rates stop rising and buyers come back to the market.”

Honsberger noted that inventory remains extremely low in the region, and without a significant boost in supply, the anticipated increase in demand will put upward pressure on prices next year.

“While real estate activity in 2023 is unlikely to reach the exuberant levels recorded in the first half of this year, Halifax’s population continues to grow and attract buyers from across Canada and abroad. I anticipate that we will see a return to more normal seasonal trends next year.”

Royal LePage 2023 Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table_2023forecast

Royal LePage 2023 Quarterly Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table_2023quarterlyforecast 

Winnipeg

In Winnipeg, the aggregate price of a home in the fourth quarter of 2023 is forecast to decrease 1.0 per cent year-over-year to $368,181. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached property is expected to rise 1.0 per cent to $410,565, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to decrease 3.0 per cent to $243,082.

“Winnipeg’s housing market activity has been more reflective of pre-pandemic norms lately, signaling that the 2023 market should return to seasonal trends. I expect to see typical winter activity levels in the coming months, followed by a boost in momentum heading into the spring,” said Michael Froese, broker and manager, Royal LePage Prime Real Estate. “I expect annual sales activity will remain below 2022 levels next year, as rising everyday household expenses constrain buyer budgets and limit their purchasing power.”

Froese added that housing supply levels remain low compared to historical norms, but expects to see an improvement in the new year as ongoing supply chain challenges are remedied and housing starts pick up across the province.

“Demand for single-family homes will continue to drive the majority of activity in the market. Most buyers still prefer a detached home, but  with inventory levels well below the five-year average, condo prices are not expected to decline significantly. Overall, I believe we are moving toward a more healthy and balanced market next year, provided interest rates stabilize soon,” said Froese.

Royal LePage 2023 Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table_2023forecast

Royal LePage 2023 Quarterly Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table_2023quarterlyforecast 

Regina

In Regina, the aggregate price of a home in the fourth quarter of 2023 is forecast to decrease 1.5 per cent year-over-year to $361,495. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached property is expected to decline 2.0 per cent to $389,648, while the median price of a condominium is forecast to increase 1.0 per cent to $221,796.

“Many homebuyers are adjusting to the new realities of higher mortgage rates, and have reduced their buying budgets as a result. Any price appreciation we see next year will be in the condominium segment and the lower end of the market, as some buyers have been priced out of the single-family segment,” said Mike Duggleby, broker and owner, Royal LePage Regina Realty.

Duggleby noted that the recovery is not likely to roll out evenly, with investors scooping up lower priced properties before prices begin to rise again.

“Activity has certainly slowed compared to the historical highs seen during the pandemic boom. I expect we’ll see a return to a normal seasonal slowdown in the winter months before picking up again in the spring, although it will not be as vibrant as we’ve seen the last two years.”

There has been a significant increase in foreclosures in Regina this year, and Duggleby expects the trend will continue next year, as overleveraged homeowners see their historically-low fixed-rate mortgages come up for renewal.

Royal LePage 2023 Market Survey Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table_2023forecast

Royal LePage 2023 Quarterly Forecast Table: rlp.ca/table_2023quarterlyforecast

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About the Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast

The Royal LePage Market Survey Forecast provides year-over-year and quarter-over-quarter price expectations for Canada’s nine largest markets. Housing values are based on the Royal LePage National House Price Composite, produced through the use of company data in addition to data and analytics from its sister company, RPS Real Property Solutions, the trusted source for residential real estate intelligence and analytics in Canada. Commentary on housing and forecast values are provided by Royal LePage residential real estate experts, based on trend analysis and market knowledge.

With the beautiful days of fall weather behind us, the first flurries of snow appeared in late November, preparing us for winter activities and the holiday season ahead. For some, the prospect of purchasing a winter recreational property is the perfect place for a family getaway, enjoying retirement, or to collect rental income. Whatever the reason for the purchase of such a property, or the sale of one, it is important to be aware of current market trends.

The median price of a single-family detached home in recreational real estate markets around the major ski hills in Quebec increased 14.3% to $488,600 during the first 10 months of 2022, compared with the same period in 2021, according to the Royal LePage 2022 Winter Recreational Property Report. Meanwhile, the median price of a condominium located near one of the province’s main ski destinations increased 33.2% year-over-year to $404,500.

During the same period, the number of detached single-family home and condominium transactions in the regions surveyed decreased 30.2% and 34.7% year-over-year, respectively; a sign of weakened demand from buyers who remained on the sidelines, waiting for prices to correct and for the upward trend of interest rates to slow.

Among the ski regions studied, the steepest increase in property prices province-wide was in Mont-Tremblant (Mont-Tremblant, Saint-Faustin–Lac-Carré and La Conception). The median price of a condominium in the region jumped 44.4% year-over-year to $475,000, between January 1st and October 31st, 2022. Meanwhile, the median price of a single-family detached home rose 23.5% to $500,000 during the same period.

Paul Dalbec, a chartered real estate broker with Mont-Tremblant Real Estate, a division of Royal LePage, says that the Mont-Tremblant real estate market is in the midst of transitioning from a seller’s market to a buyer’s market, which explains the sharp decline in sales. With interest rates moving higher, many potential buyers have adopted a wait-and-see attitude.

A sign that the recreational market is slowing down, two markets surveyed saw a decrease in the median price of single-family homes. In the regions of Mont Sutton, including Sutton, Brome and Lac-Brome, the median price of a single-family detached home decreased 3.0% year-over-year to $548,000, since the beginning of 2022. Likewise, the median price of a single-family home in Bromont dipped 0.9% year-over-year to $586,000. This is a notable contrast to 2021, when Bromont stood out as the winter recreational market with the strongest growth in median property prices.

“The runaway home price increases we saw in the Eastern Townships between 2020 and the first half of 2022 have resulted in a migration of demand toward less congested and less expensive markets,” explains Véronique Boucher, real estate broker with Royal LePage Au Sommet. “Some real estate markets like Bromont reached record high appreciation, which explains why prices have stabilized this year, to the benefit of other, more affordable areas a bit farther away, like Orford. In the condo market, demand for rental assets has contributed to price growth in recent years in Orford, due to the potential for additional income from short-term rentals, as well as strong resale value.”

Elsewhere in the province, the median price of a single-family detached home in Mont Saint-Sauveur increased 19.7% year-over-year to $562,500, compared to the same period in 2021, while the median price of a condominium rose 22.4% year-over-year to $382,300. During the same period, the median price of a single-family detached home in Val Saint-Côme and Mont Garceau increased 17.9% year-over-year to $435,000. In the Quebec City area, the median price of a single-family detached home near the ski slopes in Stoneham and Lac-Beauport increased 15.9% year-over-year to $475,300, compared to the same period in 2021. In Mont Sainte-Anne, the median price of a single-family detached home rose 4.1% year-over-year to $286,200, compared to the same period in 2021, while the median price of a condominium in the region rose 16.0% year-over-year to $145,000.

2023 Forecast

Royal LePage is forecasting that the median price of a single-family detached home in Quebec’s popular ski regions will decline 7.0% over the next 12 months, to $454,398. The forecast is based on the expectation that this market segment will show a sharper decline in prices in 2023, compared with the province’s urban markets. Given that resort markets have experienced the highest price increases over the past two years, Royal LePage anticipates that they will be the most significantly affected by price corrections. A slow but steady increase in supply in this segment is also projected, as some owners attempt to offset their expenses by putting their cottages and secondary residences on the market.

TRREB shared its housing data for December this morning and a few things immediately stand out. The INSERT NUMBER are roughly half as many as the same time last year. The INSERT NUMBER new listings are low, and not helping our chronic supply challenges. And, with average prices holding at roughly INSERT NUMBER, we continue to see buyers and sellers exhibiting great patience.

So, with that in mind, the question I’m often asked by sellers at this time of year is “What do we do? Do we promote our property or wait for the spring market? Sales are low, won’t we typically see more sales activity after the winter months?”

The one thing I’ve always said about The Holidays and The New Year is that it’s the one holiday where just about everyone in the world has time off. So, if a prospective buyer has been planning to visit from out of town in order to experience York Region and explore our neighbourhoods, this is the time. Why not have it on the market?

Remember, even when showings and sales are down, real estate remains top of mind for people across the country and beyond. 

Don’t be fooled into thinking reduced sales activity equals reduced interest in real estate. Your homes are being seen by potential buyers every day. If you are waiting for a later date to list, you are missing out on an engaged and interested audience. 

With my proven sales and marketing teqcnigh buyers and sellers need not worry about the market condistions, I will develope a plan that will most benefit you because Like I saud above waiting to ytranact is silly.  Nobody has a crystal ball so there is no telling when the market might rebound. 

I always say the best time to buy or sell real estate is when you can afford it! 

"Don't wait to by real estate, buy real estate and wait".  You can never go wrong with this approach. 

Best,

Jill

Despite plunging property prices, housing costs will stay in the stratosphere due to rising rents and interest rates.

Grassroots solutions—like community land trusts and modular  buildings—point to a brighter future.

1. We’re due for a massive housing correction

Like some kind of long-anticipated, long-feared poltergeist, it’s finally here—the big Canadian housing downturn. Thanks to relentlessly rising interest rates and declining home sales, both Desjardins and TD expect average home prices to drop 25 per cent by the end of 2023. They’ll still likely be higher than they were pre-COVID, but the provinces that benefited the most from pandemic-induced panic buying—New Brunswick, Nova Scotia and P.E.I.—will probably experience the most dramatic losses. The silver lining? Maybe people under 40 will be able to afford a home one day after all.

2. Soaring immigration will put more pressure on housing supply

Labour shortages, low birth rates and retiring baby boomers have made immigration so vital to the Canadian economy that the Trudeau government has vowed to admit a record number of permanent residents over the next few years. There’s a hitch, though: where is everyone going to live? While more housing is being built in this country than ever before, it’s still not enough to accommodate the booming population. Over the next decade, for example, Ontario alone needs to build at least a million homes, and Metro Vancouver 156,000, just to meet demand. Adding injury to, well, injury, we don’t have enough skilled construction labour to do it. 

3. First Nations in B.C. will be leading real-estate innovators

First Nations are using their historic lands in metro Vancouver to reshape the city architecturally, economically and philosophically. MST Development Corporation, a partnership between the Musqueam Indian Band, the Squamish Nation and the Tsleil-Waututh Nation, controls more than 160 acres of traditional territory the nations have collectively reclaimed, which are now the site of stunning housing developments and even a proposed film studio. The Squamish Nation, meanwhile, is developing Sen,ák¯w, a massive, 10-acre project to eventually house nearly 10,000 people in the heart of the city. Because the land is Squamish-controlled, city zoning doesn’t apply. That means Sen,ák¯w will be far denser than would otherwise be allowed—a reclamation of Indigenous authority over traditional land, and a needed injection of housing in a city facing one of Canada’s worst affordability crises. 

4. Wood will be the hot new building material on the block

If cool concrete dominated Canadian urban architecture between the 1950s and ’80s, and glass and steel typified the 2000s, then mass timber might define the next few decades. Here’s hoping it does. Mass timber is a load-bearing material, usually made of cross-laminated lumber, which is much more cost-effective than concrete or steel. It’s also greener: the wood is renewable and stores CO2. Mass-timber apartment buildings and office towers are currently springing up all over Canada and the world. They include the University of British Columbia’s Brock Commons student residence, the massive Arbora apartment complex in Montreal and George Brown College’s 10-storey Limberlost Place—Ontario’s largest such structure, slated to open in the summer of 2024.

5. Bigger, denser, taller buildings will transform our cities

Canada’s population could reach 52.5 million in the next 20 years, a rate of growth faster than any other G7 nation. Most municipalities agree that the best way to accommodate this boom is through more intensification (leaving aside Calgary’s unfettered urban sprawl and Doug Ford’s beloved superhighway 413). That means taller and denser housing within existing communities. Density is better for the climate, better for the social fabric and better for affordability. Correspondingly, the country’s skylines will be transformed over the next few years. For example: King Toronto—by starchitect Bjarke Ingels, with a striking design hearkening back to Moshe Safdie’s iconic Habitat 67 in Montreal—will open its doors. In Vancouver, we’ll see the Broadway Plan, which calls for new housing that can accommodate up to 50,000 more residents near a new subway line that’s slated to open in 2025.

The Bank of Canada raised its benchmark interest rate by 50 basis points on Wednesday, to 4.25 per cent.

The move was widely expected by economists, who were anticipating a rate hike of either 25 or 50 points.

Canada's central bank has raised its rate seven times this year in its fight to wrestle inflation into submission. In the process, the bank has taken its rate from functionally zero to its highest point since 2008 — its fastest pace of rate hikes since inflation targeting began in the 1990s. 

Those rate hikes have had a huge impact on the rates that Canadian consumers and businesses get from their banks on things like savings accounts and mortgages.

Canada's five biggest banks moved swiftly to match the bank's increase, raising their prime lending rates by the same 50 basis points. The prime lending rate at all of Canada's major lenders will now be 6.45 per cent as of Thursday morning. That will increase borrowing costs for anyone with a variable rate loan.

In previous rate hikes this year, the bank made it clear that it would continue to raise its trend-setting rate until inflation came back to within the range of up to three per cent that it likes to see.

As recently as October, the bank was saying it "expects" that rates will have to go even higher, while the month before, it said it "still judge[s]" that rates would have to go higher.

Even after announcing its biggest rate hike ever — a full percentage point — in July, the bank was saying it "continues to judge that interest rates will need to rise further."

But Wednesday's statement accompanying the rate decision was a clear departure from that tone, as the language shifted to a more neutral, wait-and-see approach — and a clear suggesting the bank may be getting ready to stand on the sidelines for a while.

In its statement on Wednesday, the bank says it "will be considering" whether or not the rate has to go higher in order to bring supply and demand back into balance and return inflation to target.

Policy pivot

For economist Royce Mendes at Desjardins, that's a clear pivot. "Upcoming readings on the labour market, inflation and the central bank's own surveys will dictate whether there's more to come," he said. "We now expect central bankers to officially communicate a pause at their January announcement, when they will have a fresh set of forecasts in hand."

Stephen Brown, an economist with Capital Economics, is also among those who thinks the bank is getting ready to shift into neutral. "We would not rule out a final 25 basis point interest rate hike in January, but the Bank is very close to the end of its tightening cycle," he said in a note to clients on Wednesday.

Trading in investments known as swaps that bet on the bank's future policy moves imply the market thinks there might be one more small rate hike of 25 basis points in the new year, before the bank changes direction and has to cut its rate at least once in 2023

Stopping the barrage of rate hikes is long overdue for people like Rabia Shumayal. She and her husband bought a home in Mississauga, Ont., during the pandemic, a decision she says she has since come to regret because of the rapid escalation in her mortgage costs.

"If they keep increasing the interest rate at this rate, I don't know how I'm going to afford [my mortage] bill," she told CBC News in an interview.

Skyrocketing payments

On the advice of her mortgage broker and others, she opted for a variable rate loan. 

Her initial rate was 1.92 per cent, which worked out to a mortgage payment of $1,700 a month — well within her family budget.

But even before Wednesday's hike, her mortgage rate has skyrocketed to 5.5 per cent and a monthly payment of $2,700. That thousand-dollar uptick gobbles up every spare cent the family has, and then some. 

"My kids don't have any extracurriculars because I can't afford it," she said. "Every single penny is going toward the mortgage."

She bristles at suggestions that families can beat inflation by cutting back on expenses, such as the recent quip by federal Finance Minister Chrystia Freeland that families should consider cancelling their subscriptions to Disney+.

"I already don't have one of those things," Shumayal says. "And even if I had those, how would getting rid of $30 make up for $1,000 of an escalation of an interest rate?"

While she's glad to have a home for her children, she's angry that the bank seems committed to raising rates and punishing families like hers, despite the bank's infamous 2020 pledge that "interest rates are going to be low for a long time."

"I should punch myself for that decision," she says. "Why did I listen to all these people?"

Another homeowner, Torontonian Rebecca Cossar, told CBC News this week that while she has been relatively immune to effects from the rate hikes so far, that won't be the case starting in February when her mortgage is up for renewal.

She was fortunate enough to lock into a rate below two per cent in early 2021, but the options she's being presented with now are all above seven per cent.

"That's going to quadruple my mortgage costs every month," she says, "which means that everything that you pay in a month is just going to interest."

"You are just literally standing still. It's very depressing."

Calls for different approach

Homeowners themselves aren't the only ones thinking perhaps it's time for the bank to sit on the sidelines for a while as the economy digests the hikes that have already happened.

Bea Bruske, the head of the Canadian Labour Congress, says the Bank of Canada's policy decisions are being needlessly punitive, and lobbies for a softer approach.

"Central banks raise rates to cool the economy and lower inflation, but the Bank of Canada has gone further and has waged a public relations campaign warning about the phantom menace of higher wages," Bruske said Wednesday.

"There is simply no evidence of this," Bruske went on, noting that wages are still going up at a rate far lower than inflation.

"Meanwhile, corporate profits have ballooned to record levels. It is time for a more balanced policy approach."

SOURCE: Pete Evans is the senior business writer for CBCNews.ca. Prior to coming to the CBC, his work has appeared in the Globe & Mail, the Financial Post, the Toronto Star, and Canadian Business Magazine. Twitter: @p_evans Email: pete.evans@cbc.ca