I have held off on writing this newsletter until things settled a bit, but with so many people asking me about the impact of trade wars on real estate in Canada—and particularly in the GTA—I wanted to share my thoughts. These are still early days, and while some optimistic predictions suggest that the ongoing tariff disputes could be resolved within six months, there are no guarantees.
We can only hope that Trump shifts his focus elsewhere as the U.S. stock market volatility and global retaliatory tariffs continue to create uncertainty. While economists have differing opinions on how this will affect Canadians, one thing is clear: Canada has strong global support.
Here are some key points to consider:
Canada’s Economic Growth and What It Means for Real Estate
Did you know that Canada has the 9th largest economy in the world and is currently the 2nd fastest-growing? Our strong economic position plays a significant role in shaping real estate markets across the country, and recent global trade dynamics may have unexpected benefits for Canadian homeowners and investors.
How Tariffs Impact Canada – And Your Home Value
Trade tariffs are always a hot topic, as they can influence industries, employment, and even real estate. While some may worry about tariffs negatively affecting Canada, they could also make Canadian goods more affordable for American buyers. This shift may help keep our economy robust and mitigate any negative effects.
For homeowners and investors, this economic strength means continued demand in the real estate market. A strong economy supports home values, ensures stability, and creates opportunities for those looking to buy, sell, or invest.
Opportunities for Buyers and Sellers
First-time buyers are in a great position right now. With interest rates coming down and inventory increasing, more opportunities are opening up to find the perfect home.
This movement in the market benefits move-up buyers as well. When first-time buyers purchase entry-level homes, it creates demand for mid-tier properties, helping the entire market stay active.
What about home prices?
Prices have remained flat since last year, despite earlier predictions of a 6% increase for 2024.
Even if prices stay stable, they are still up over 50% compared to five years ago in Newmarket, Aurora, East Gwillimbury, Whitchurch-Stouffville, and Georgina.
Sellers continue to benefit from this long-term appreciation, even in a more balanced market.
The Bank of Canada has been proactive by lowering it's prime lending rate once again to 2.75% which benefits both buyers and sellers.
What This Means for You
Whether you're buying your first home, looking to move up, or thinking about selling, the market offers real opportunities in 2025. With stable prices, lower interest rates, and a strong economic foundation, now is a great time to explore your options.
Let’s talk about your real estate goals—I’m here to help!
Jill Renshaw, Broker
Next Bank of Canada Rate Review:* April 16, 2025