I have held off on writing this newsletter until things settled a bit, but with so many people asking me about the impact of trade wars on real estate in Canada—and particularly in the GTA—I wanted to share my thoughts. These are still early days, and while some optimistic predictions suggest that the ongoing tariff disputes could be resolved within six months, there are no guarantees.

We can only hope that Trump shifts his focus elsewhere as the U.S. stock market volatility and global retaliatory tariffs continue to create uncertainty. While economists have differing opinions on how this will affect Canadians, one thing is clear: Canada has strong global support. 

Here are some key points to consider:

Canada’s Economic Growth and What It Means for Real Estate

Did you know that Canada has the 9th largest economy in the world and is currently the 2nd fastest-growing? Our strong economic position plays a significant role in shaping real estate markets across the country, and recent global trade dynamics may have unexpected benefits for Canadian homeowners and investors.

How Tariffs Impact Canada – And Your Home Value

Trade tariffs are always a hot topic, as they can influence industries, employment, and even real estate. While some may worry about tariffs negatively affecting Canada, they could also make Canadian goods more affordable for American buyers. This shift may help keep our economy robust and mitigate any negative effects.

For homeowners and investors, this economic strength means continued demand in the real estate market. A strong economy supports home values, ensures stability, and creates opportunities for those looking to buy, sell, or invest.

Opportunities for Buyers and Sellers

First-time buyers are in a great position right now. With interest rates coming down and inventory increasing, more opportunities are opening up to find the perfect home.

This movement in the market benefits move-up buyers as well. When first-time buyers purchase entry-level homes, it creates demand for mid-tier properties, helping the entire market stay active.

What about home prices?

• Prices have remained flat since last year, despite earlier predictions of a 6% increase for 2024.

• Even if prices stay stable, they are still up over 50% compared to five years ago in Newmarket, Aurora, East Gwillimbury, Whitchurch-Stouffville, and Georgina.

• Sellers continue to benefit from this long-term appreciation, even in a more balanced market.

• The Bank of Canada has been proactive by lowering it's prime lending rate once again to 2.75% which benefits both buyers and sellers. 

What This Means for You

Whether you're buying your first home, looking to move up, or thinking about selling, the market offers real opportunities in 2025. With stable prices, lower interest rates, and a strong economic foundation, now is a great time to explore your options.

Let’s talk about your real estate goals—I’m here to help!

Jill Renshaw, Broker

Next Bank of Canada Rate Review:* April 16, 2025

On March 12th, the Bank of Canada announced that it had lowered the target for the overnight lending rate by 25 basis points to 2.75%. This marks the seventh consecutive decrease to rates since June 2024. 

In its announcement, the Bank acknowledged that the Canadian economy had started the year on good footing. Now, with a trade war underway with the United States, the country is expected to see slower economic activity and increasing inflationary pressures in the months ahead, justifying the central bank’s decision to reduce its policy rate yet again. 

“[In recent] months, the pervasive uncertainty created by continuously changing US tariff threats has shaken business and consumer confidence. This is restraining household spending intentions and businesses’ plans to hire and invest. Against this backdrop, and with inflation near the 2% target, [the] Governing Council decided to reduce the policy rate a further 25 basis points,” said Tiff Macklem, Governor of the Bank of Canada, in a press conference with reporters following the announcement.

“Looking ahead, the trade conflict with the United States can be expected to weigh on economic activity, while also increasing prices and inflation. Governing Council will proceed carefully with any further changes to our policy rate given the need to assess both the upward pressures on inflation from higher costs and the downward pressures from weaker demand.”

In January, Canada’s Consumer Price Index (CPI) rose 1.9% on a year-over-year basis, a slight increase from 1.8% in December. Higher gasoline and energy prices contributed to the modest uptick to the inflation rate, which remains under the Bank’s 2% inflation target. Inflation is expected to increase to 2.5% in March as relief from the GST/HST tax break subsides.